Conviction split — 3 majors rose, 1 fell. Minerals carries 63.4% of the book; the houses disagree most about timing on Energy Infrastructure (spread 0.67).
conviction — ViskaStrat published day scores. One lane, not a blend. Shares of invested capital, 30 positions valued 2026-08-04.
The four majors
4 of 4 majors scored · 5 published days · AI 4/5, Power Generation 4/5, Minerals 4/5, Energy Infrastructure 2/5
AI11.3%
+0.50— +0.000today
+0.3804-day cumulative
SMLF4/5 dspread 0.20
30310102030405
firmEnough days and documents to lean on.
4/7 days · 40.0 docs/scored day · independent share 0.58
Power Generation4.6%
+0.44▼ -0.062today
-0.0624-day cumulative
SMLF4/5 dspread 0.21
30310102030405
firmEnough days and documents to lean on.
4/7 days · 31.0 docs/scored day · independent share 0.42
Minerals63.4%
+0.50— +0.000today
+0.5424-day cumulative
SMLF4/5 dspread 0.50
30310102030405
weakToo little evidence to lean on — check tagging before reading this as quiet.
4/7 days · 15.5 docs/scored day · independent share 0.31
Energy Infrastructure20.7%
+0.67▲ +0.267today
+0.2672-day cumulative
SMLF2/5 dspread 0.67
30310102030405
weakToo little evidence to lean on — check tagging before reading this as quiet.
2/7 days · 16.5 docs/scored day · independent share 0.30
Sign — is conviction bull or bear:bull neutral bearnot scoredMovement — which way it went, in ink not sign colour:rose fell heldS M L F — short, medium, long, future horizon. A gold ring marks a horizon the houses contested.Spread — gap between the strongest and weakest scored horizon: how much the houses disagree about when, as distinct from whether.
Conviction × breadth
The field the four signals above were read from
strong bullbullcontested — near-centre netbearstrong bearsplit — the desks disagreedDot size = narratives grouped into the node
The four sleeves below are what the fund holds against that field.
Read together: the graph is what was argued, the sleeves are what was owned.
The sleeves
Minerals
— conviction unchanged
63.4%$8,155,152
The gold and silver sleeve gained 781.389 in value and lost 7,9 points of weight on the same day, from 71,3% to 63,4%, because the book grew faster than the sleeve did. Conviction on it did not move a point -- the concentration eased without the case changing, and without a decision being taken.
1 finding · 4 statements · 1 publisher quoted — the quotable subset, not the full corpus
china-central-bank-buyingThe Market EarSML
The current volatility backdrop makes call spreads an attractive way to express a bullish gold view; the GLD September 390/430 call spread offers roughly an 8x max payoff.The Market Earhigh
A close above $4,200 could trigger a much more meaningful squeeze in gold.The Market Earhigh
Gold is approaching one of its most interesting technical setups in months, with technicals, positioning and macro drivers beginning to point in the same direction; taken together they suggest gold is entering its most attractive tactical setup in months.The Market Earmedium
If gold breaks higher, there's still ample room for a positioning squeeze.The Market Earlow
Energy Infrastructure
▲ conviction +0.267
20.7%$2,664,704
A fifth of the book now carries the strongest conviction of the week, and the case for it is Goldman on Siemens Energy -- more than 60% earnings growth to FY2030, with the stock at about 6x 2030 EV/EBITDA. Ten grid names are priced off one company's read-through; the next add needs its own name, not more of this one.
1 finding · 4 statements · 1 publisher quoted — the quotable subset, not the full corpus
grid-technologies-backlog-growthGoldman SachsSMLF
GS calls the result 'another strong quarter' pointing to an upgrade to FY consensus EBITA estimates.Goldman Sachs (Patel, Lavizani, Gandolfi)high
GS attributes expected growth to three drivers: higher profitability within Gas Services, solid long-duration top-line growth and higher profit margins in Grid Technologies, and increased profit margins at Siemens Gamesa.Goldman Sachs (Patel, Lavizani, Gandolfi)high
GS reads the delivery this year as reassurance on fundamental demand tailwinds for Siemens Energy — datacenter demand, grid capex, and energy security — with more than 60% earnings growth expected through to FY2030 and a further material acceleration in cash flow.Goldman Sachs (Patel, Lavizani, Gandolfi)high
GS's own EBITA estimates run 6% ahead of consensus by FY2030, with a further material acceleration in cash flow forecast, leaving the stock trading at c.6x 2030E EV/EBITDA.Goldman Sachs (Patel, Lavizani, Gandolfi)high
AI
— conviction unchanged
11.3%$1,454,913
The AI sleeve went from one name to four and from 3,6% to 11,3% of the book while conviction on it did not move a point and only two houses were still writing on capital spending, against six on 08-03. AMD, MU and GLW were added into the thinnest AI reading of the week; whatever argued for them is not in what the houses wrote.
2 findings · 5 statements · 1 publisher quoted — the quotable subset, not the full corpus
ai-capexGoldman SachsSMLF
Korea semiconductor memory cycle expected to be stronger and longer than previous cycles due to accelerating compute demand and deep supply shortages.Timothy Moemedium
GS maintains overweight on Korea with 12-month KOSPI index target of 12,000.Timothy Moemedium
amd-mi-4xx-gpu-rampGoldman SachsSMLF
We expect the stock to trade lower following a solid quarter with guidance above the Street, set against very high expectations heading into the quarter.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (James Schneider et al.)high
We reiterate our Buy rating on AMD, as we see the company well positioned to capture an increasing share of overall compute market, driven by an already strong presence in the CPU market and a broadening aperture of key customers in the AI accelerator market.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (James Schneider et al.)high
We expect AMD to ultimately deliver Datacenter revenue consistent with our estimate (over $40bn in Datacenter GPU in 2027) as the company ramps its MI-4XX product beginning in 3Q, with very strong growth in the server CPU market.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (James Schneider et al.)medium
Power Generation
— conviction unchanged
4.6%$593,400
The first fall in conviction on this sleeve lands on the day both stories that drove its reversal go unwritten and a Hormuz deal story arrives with two houses. Nothing here says the disruption ended, only that the houses stopped arguing it -- EQT and RIG hold a premium no longer being restated.
5 findings · 14 statements · 2 publishers quoted — the quotable subset, not the full corpus
gas-turbine-capacity-expansionGoldman SachsSMLF
GS calls the result 'another strong quarter' pointing to an upgrade to FY consensus EBITA estimates.Goldman Sachs (Patel, Lavizani, Gandolfi)high
GS attributes expected growth to three drivers: higher profitability within Gas Services, solid long-duration top-line growth and higher profit margins in Grid Technologies, and increased profit margins at Siemens Gamesa.Goldman Sachs (Patel, Lavizani, Gandolfi)high
GS reads the delivery this year as reassurance on fundamental demand tailwinds for Siemens Energy — datacenter demand, grid capex, and energy security — with more than 60% earnings growth expected through to FY2030 and a further material acceleration in cash flow.Goldman Sachs (Patel, Lavizani, Gandolfi)high
GS's own EBITA estimates run 6% ahead of consensus by FY2030, with a further material acceleration in cash flow forecast, leaving the stock trading at c.6x 2030E EV/EBITDA.Goldman Sachs (Patel, Lavizani, Gandolfi)high
ai-hyperscaler-power-demandGoldman SachsSMLF
We believe this market reaction is overdone... we reiterate our Buy rating on NRG, as we believe the core business fundamentals remain intact and the BYOP pipeline represents earnings upside if materialized.Goldman Sachshigh
12-month price target moves to $169.00, implying 46% total return; updated target is down from $184 before, based on an 8.75x EV/EBITDA multiple (down from 9.0x) and an 8.75% FCF yield (up from 8.5%).Goldman Sachshigh
We lower our EV/EBITDA target multiple to 8.75x from 9.0x before, to better reflect increased risk outlook in Texas, as well as increase our FCF Yield target to 8.75% from 8.5% previously.Goldman Sachshigh
ai-data-center-demandGoldman SachsSMLF
GS believes the market's reaction to the post-2Q26-earnings-call, post-directive stock decline is overdone, citing three reasons: (1) the 1.2GW data center opportunity isn't targeted for COD until late-2029, giving runway to navigate regulatory updates; (2) management can operate the facility in BTM/island mode if grid interconnection is delayed; (3) NRG's BYOP model aligns with the Governor's stated priorities (reliability, affordability, community protection) by pairing new demand with new generation funded by the customer.Goldman Sachs Equity Researchhigh
GS reiterates Buy and sets a 12-month price target of $169.00 on NRG, against a current price of $117.04, implying 44.4% upside per the cover-page box and 46% total return per the body text.Goldman Sachs Equity Researchhigh
Following 2Q26 results, GS's 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate moves to $5,530mn from $5,536mn previously — slightly below the midpoint of NRG's 2026 guidance range of $5,325-$5,825mn, and above FactSet consensus of $5,499mn.Goldman Sachs Equity Researchhigh
Our updated 12-month price target of $169 (down from $184 before) is based on an 8.75x EV/EBITDA multiple (down from 9.0x before) and an 8.75% FCF yield (up from 8.5% before)... implying 46% total return.Goldman Sachs Researchhigh