PRODUCTION DATA AUDIT · FAIL

Persisted Substack links

Read-only audit of every persisted links value in 98 Substack bodies. No URL was fetched or executed.

79 of 88 link occurrences are opaque Substack redirects. Their destination and relevance cannot be established under the no-fetch constraint. One unsubscribe URL and two additional chrome links also survived extraction.
Rerun after reported six-post re-emission: FAIL, unchanged. At 2026-08-13T09:42:34Z the persisted link tuples were byte-identical, and all six expected L2 retrieved_at readings remained earlier than the rerun.
98
articles covered
88
link occurrences
79
unresolved redirects
0
non-HTTPS / capability params

Classification

ClassCountFinding
a — substantive citation/source0Candidate citations remain behind redirects.
b — author/product/promotion64 YouTube recordings, 2 paid livestreams.
c — navigation/chrome3Unsubscribe, profile, read-in-app.
d — suspicious/unrelated79Unresolved redirect; not proof of malice, but not auditable.

Every persisted link

Inflation Risk In The Global Economy — 7 links · b 3 · c 0 · d 4

capital-flows:2026-08-12T00:10:46+00:00:167a5629

ClassExact stored URLAnchorAdjacent contextQuery
bhttps://open.substack.com/live-stream/316996Stream Link For Paid Subscribers[Stream Link For Paid Subscribers](<LINK>)
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/02ef8d90-5a39-4387-9a6f-142febda16a0Capital Flows@GlobalflowsBonds won't bid until the AI capex ends or the credit behind it collapses12:24 AM &#183; Aug 11, 2026 &#183; 22.3K Views18 Replies &#183; 5 Reposts &#183; 208 LikesBonds will not bid until AI CapEx ends or the credit behind it collapses. The nowcast is running near 5.8% real GDP with fixed investment accelerating, and roughly 40% of S&P 500 r
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/154f30fe-224e-4477-8f5b-90c0f5ebd598Capital Flows@GlobalflowsWhile everyone is focused on the Sept FF contract, this is literally the most bearish chart for bonds The imbalances that are building in the system are significant right now and the tails are compressing There is a reason I have a lot more cash now and I am just focusing on2:30 AM &#183; Aug 10, 2026 &#183; 21.9K Views10 Replies &#183; 3 Reposts &#183; 110 LikesThe warning signs are stacking incrementally: inventory to sales ratios are falling while government spending rises, and real rates at new highs are still not restrictive enough to
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/add219d2-d766-4ac4-9305-da20c6dd6caeCapital Flows@Globalflows7:12 PM &#183; Aug 11, 2026 &#183; 7.14K Views2 Replies &#183; 24 LikesBonds will not bid until AI CapEx ends or the credit behind it collapses. The nowcast is running near 5.8% real GDP with fixed investment accelerating, and roughly 40% of S&P 500 r
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/cf426fb3-5165-4ae0-8652-a09cda91a9c8Capital Flows@GlobalflowsIf you think NVDA taking out more debt and structuring their balance sheet like this is bearish, man do we have a lot to learn Debt levels increasing isn’t bearish. It’s ONLY when there is an asset liability mismatch that a crisis occurs. In the meantime, feel free to remain3:16 PM &#183; Aug 11, 2026 &#183; 16.5K Views10 Replies &#183; 7 Reposts &#183; 149 LikesDebt levels increasing is not bearish. A crisis only occurs when there is an asset-liability mismatch, which is WHY NVIDIA structuring its balance sheet with more debt against appr
bhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19UBq8Rw4X8videoYou can find the free recording on the Inflation Risk Playbook here in the YouTube video:[video](<LINK>)v
bhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gGO8l8laKAvideoInterest rates sit at the center of every asset price in the global system, yet most investors never look at the machinery that actually sets them. Tomorrow’s stream will map HOW pv
The Hidden Mechanics Behind Interest Rates — 4 links · b 3 · c 0 · d 1

capital-flows:2026-08-12T22:50:58+00:00:880e3e92

ClassExact stored URLAnchorAdjacent contextQuery
bhttps://open.substack.com/live-stream/318252Stream Link For Paid Subscribers[Stream Link For Paid Subscribers](<LINK>)
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/78261da7-07b4-4c00-82cf-729e5133bc19LINKAll slide decks by Jaymes: [LINK](<LINK>)
bhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gGO8l8laKAvideoYou can find the free recording on the Interest Rate Mechanics Playbook here in the YouTube video:[video](<LINK>)v
bhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ib88mxw9BD4videoEquity valuations sit at highs while the long end of the curve quietly bear steepens underneath them, and that combination is WHERE the real danger accumulates. The stream will mapv
Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update — 1 links · b 0 · c 1 · d 0

capital-wars:2026-08-11T15:34:47+00:00:c8761616

ClassExact stored URLAnchorAdjacent contextQuery
chttps://capitalwars.substack.com/action/disable_email<LINK>
Missile Restocking — 60 links · b 0 · c 0 · d 60

citrini:2026-08-12T16:32:52+00:00:f1f0ab69

ClassExact stored URLAnchorAdjacent contextQuery
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/006f541b-553f-4111-a83d-503c068b232bSo far this feels like a layup for both of our themes here, but what really caught our eye was a recent partnership with IAI, Israel’s state-owned defense contractor. Palladyne has
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/02947d27-b399-4436-8453-ad2d3274f9aahereOur basket construction includes the names mentioned above and is weighted to express pure exposure to the theme, with some subjective judgement considering the tactical opportunit
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/08a42c32-6efd-4bdb-81c0-9a46aa2db29fSaab (SAABB SS) represents the capacity expansion leg of our European defense thesis.<LINK>
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/0b21e254-eaaa-4caf-a95b-a320c83ae094Tripling and quadrupling production is great, but it’s important to note that the US fired an estimated 190 to 290 THAAD interceptors and another 1,000+ PAC-3 missiles in a single
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/0f7492f5-0296-4862-b942-b3af6e240d7cIn response, ten European countries have formed the Freya Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition to build out a next-gen interceptor system, directly supporting Kyiv’s Freya air-defense
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/129d4e82-c191-479c-afd8-55d51be14611redeploymentThe intertwining of the US-Euro defense complex is partly out of necessity. The armament shortage means rationing and hard decisions on where to route air defense capabilities &#82
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/14f873d3-a8d1-42b7-aed4-9a1f68bc11e6In April, L3Harris filed a confidential S-1 for their Missile Solutions segment, wherein they would retain 80% ownership of the SpinCo, with the government serving as an anchor inv
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/16d2c398-4e11-469c-8ea8-cf7e9b0fe800Again, this is not to say the DoW will stop producing higher end weapons &#8211; the US government hasn’t shown a ton of cost discipline in the past.<LINK>
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/172080b5-0394-4342-8a04-907000e1ef8aAtoms vs. BitsThe last demand vector in focus within the missile replenishing cycle is at the raw materials layer. We won’t spend a ton of time rehashing our thesis here &#8211; we’d recommend r
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/195dea9c-07b8-4252-a469-ceef92c8df50The public markets have been unkind to HONA thus far &#8211; after the opening trade valued HONA at just shy of $300/share, the stock has fallen into the $160s after its first stan
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/1adf4673-375f-4199-9a08-67e967c0a763The Missile segment has historically comprised a mid-to-low teens share of LHX’s total sales with a ~$4 billion run rate. However, per L3Harris’ President of Missile Solutions, [Ke
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/1e3b9e62-7278-4723-9ca2-e3a0f974a4bcRheinmetall (RHM GR) is a bit of an inverse case to KOG. Whereas KOG acquired their way into a US footprint, RHM is creating a beachhead for US primes looking to develop a European
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/20aa6182-3695-4431-9640-619308d3bf71Our revised drone basket is shown below available [here](https://substack.com/redirect/38b1307b-3589-410d-8180-1bbd57e4828a).https://substack.com/redirect/92cd549d-fcf2-470d-86ac-1
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/2297ccfa-808c-44eb-a528-22ffea2ef520And of course, since you are reading investment research, we’ve laid out a four-part framework of how this will ripple through global equities&#8230;<LINK>https://substack.com/redi
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/2c52c5db-1215-4b0b-86dc-0d31cc0c973fAnd of course, since you are reading investment research, we’ve laid out a four-part framework of how this will ripple through global equities&#8230;https://substack.com/redirect/2
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/33b0136e-0dea-454c-8b10-95631b7e22b7Ralliant also has PAC-3 exposure &#8211; this past April PSEMC received a [$27.3 million Defense Production Act](https://substack.com/redirect/ad2b8b85-d06a-42cd-a339-fa2ba72bfc10)
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/34d430b7-26a3-438b-96c5-3598ec735c06Ken BedingfieldThe Missile segment has historically comprised a mid-to-low teens share of LHX’s total sales with a ~$4 billion run rate. However, per L3Harris’ President of Missile Solutions, [Ke
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/38b1307b-3589-410d-8180-1bbd57e4828ahereOur revised drone basket is shown below available [here](<LINK>).https://substack.com/redirect/92cd549d-fcf2-470d-86ac-1e0e6e76eadahttps://substack.com/redirect/20aa6182-3695-4431-
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/3dc1231d-0f01-404c-9675-90419481a1e6Military planners have been ringing alarm bells about inventory drawdowns for some time, and (for national security reasons) no one knows exactly what the true numbers are. Prior e
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/44ada26f-012c-4073-86e8-b03462e6ba07And ironically, the Iranian conflict beginning on February 27 essentially marked the top for many US defense stocks which have traded off in a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news fashion.
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/46094d6a-fc4a-48e7-80bd-b46a2f215f58Our goal at Citrini is to identify trends that are going to sustain longer than a few good earnings reports. And while the collective attention of market participants has been fixa
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/47106577-a42f-43a3-a89f-ba577a1b887bOn the other side of the titanium restocking thesis lives Norsk Titanium (NTI NO) &#8211; which is perfectly positioned as a relief valve for this exact bottleneck. The company’s &
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/49ee25c7-4d63-4284-87cb-372313404ae1Both primes and subcontractors have had to manage &#8220;just enough&#8221; capacity because they can’t run the risk of getting rugged when priorities shift in the next administrat
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/527efbf3-48d6-4ee3-b90b-9e92c2e3d525IEH Corp (IEHC US), a niche supplier of high-stress connectors used in missiles, has one of the most concentrated exposures to this theme, and its backlog shows just how recently a
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/5315eacf-ec95-465b-b3a8-9c02d1728b50Ralliant (RAL US)’s PacSci manufactures the components to help things blow up &#8211; pin pullers, arming devices, motor igniters, and two crucial subsystems for every THAAD interc
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/56d2c46f-56dc-4af7-a5da-1f5acfbf1dca<LINK>
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/597f076a-8012-4eee-b2fe-316cdffdb916We aren’t the only ones who have picked up on these trends. Last year, European and Korean defense contractors surged as Trump hammered allies to start pulling their weight or risk
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/5c060893-195d-4525-a1e7-88a1ee3d6c2dInterceptor depletion is at the top of mind, not just for the US but for anyone who relies on these systems for their own protection. The most recent estimates from CSIS (below) sh
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/635deb55-d760-4e5b-a7ae-5ceb3772b8e6Next up is &#8220;dual use&#8221; rocket company, Karman Space & Defense (KRMN US), which serves as a critical Tier-1 and Tier-2 supplier of composites, separation mechanisms, and
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/65eab46f-ed4b-4e44-b420-846d249b7ef6The New WFH (War from Home)We laid out this &#8220;warfare accounting&#8221; logic last June in [The New WFH (War from Home)](<LINK>). The natural evolution of warfare seems to point to lower cost autonomous
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/665e0753-709f-46b4-8129-91b99389f942But it’s the White House’s own actions that underscore the severity of the situation &#8211; and the administration has been preparing to increase capacity well before first contac
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/66e0546b-2629-4a5d-abe5-717132cede27The DoW program targets roughly an eightfold increase in FAMM production, from 1,000 to 7,990 rounds. Set that against JASSM production at 860 a year, which is barely increasing. T
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/67c1e366-756b-4a66-a2ee-b0d83a4b8a2dthe company was selectedOn July 27, [the company was selected](<LINK>) for a DoW program that qualifies NTI as a supplier across all US military services. We believe Norsk Titanium personifies the type of
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/68f5efaa-b9a8-42e0-916a-b460133faa70Our basket construction includes the names mentioned above and is weighted to express pure exposure to the theme, with some subjective judgement considering the tactical opportunit
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/6aa6c1a1-907a-4fa8-b4e2-00d4c25ce1c6The memory-driven unwind of the KOSPI serves as a valuation reset, rather than being reflective of a broken thesis. The demand backdrop is robust &#8211; and, in the instance that
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/6b3647e0-910e-430d-87a1-955ec3f262f8Ducommun (DCO US) is the oldest company in the state of California still operating today. Founded by Charles Ducommun in 1849, DCO began as a watch-repair shop and general store. I
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/6bedb797-82d7-4f81-8db0-4ad3963feaceThe urgency is no longer theoretical: NdPr oxide prices have doubled since 2024, with ex-China sources commanding a strong premium. Tungsten has also tripled over this timeframe, w
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/796a9ec3-a3e1-4c92-bc88-96c666478696Kongsberg (KOG NO), in partnership with RTX, co-developed the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) &#8211; KOG supplies the fire distribution center, the canist
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/7efb5cc9-3698-4ee4-847c-944f090b8157year-to-date performanceIn the US, we can turn to Unusual Machines (UMAC US) as a domestic supplier of drone motors, batteries, and airframes. Like KTOS, UMAC is priced for growth &#8211; and the company’
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/804bcbda-dd3f-4d21-b60d-a2cc8746a6fbIn January, Lockheed Martin signed an agreement with the Department of War to quadruple THAAD interceptor production from 96 units to 400 units per year. Since then, they’ve conver
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/851dbc65-455e-45d7-b3db-a8f8fc20e322Meanwhile, RTX shares jumped after reporting Q2 backlog growth of 22% across the firm while raising sales, EPS, and cash flow guidance, explicitly tied to its missile franchise.<LI
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/8e20ddc0-82d0-4f5a-8008-3e5b8b1b8dbdNow see this trend going in reverse. Instead of shutting down capacity and allowing consolidation, the US government is using both carrots and sticks to expand production capacity,
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/8f5df375-59f8-4f55-853c-37a9f30aecc6$35 billion contractIn January, Lockheed Martin signed an agreement with the Department of War to quadruple THAAD interceptor production from 96 units to 400 units per year. Since then, they’ve conver
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/91f5b760-8552-43be-bfa1-368761ce4d1bOn July 27, [the company was selected](https://substack.com/redirect/67c1e366-756b-4a66-a2ee-b0d83a4b8a2d) for a DoW program that qualifies NTI as a supplier across all US military
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/92cd549d-fcf2-470d-86ac-1e0e6e76eadaOur revised drone basket is shown below available [here](https://substack.com/redirect/38b1307b-3589-410d-8180-1bbd57e4828a).<LINK>https://substack.com/redirect/20aa6182-3695-4431-
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/92d522e7-b635-4a7e-baf0-1927e0d1b842In just five months, the US military has fired more missiles and interceptors than it has in any year since Desert Storm. And unlike bombarding and occupying ill-equipped adversari
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/972ef600-a5f6-45c4-9ff0-288c680a6900TrinzicWhat’s most interesting to us is how KBR is running the same SpinCo playbook as LHX and HON, announcing their Mission Tech business will become independent and be named [Trinzic](<
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/9b2e84f1-a614-4f30-9aba-c98480aaf860The most acute shortages in the munitions stack are the &#8220;exquisite&#8221; class weapons, as they’ve been dubbed by the administration. That is, top-of-the-line weaponry that
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/9e8a348d-b340-40ef-93ac-2adfaef9cbaaIndustrial Base Analysis and Sustainment authorityL3Harris disclosed that the Department of War would invest $1 billion into LHX’s Missile Solutions segment via convertible preferred equity. The funds would be drawn from the DoW’s
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/ad2b8b85-d06a-42cd-a339-fa2ba72bfc10$27.3 million Defense Production ActRalliant also has PAC-3 exposure &#8211; this past April PSEMC received a [$27.3 million Defense Production Act](<LINK>) award to &#8220;expand the munitions industrial base.&#8221
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/ada4e8fb-65c5-4123-941a-15afb276a973All of that means there’s no lengthy development cycle &#8211; the drones are production ready and fill an immediate need.<LINK>
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/b5a4ff0a-9caa-4186-a8c9-4209cec27dbdThe last demand vector in focus within the missile replenishing cycle is at the raw materials layer. We won’t spend a ton of time rehashing our thesis here &#8211; we’d recommend r
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/c437ea74-62a0-4b1e-9536-03828a373a20Korea’s medium-range interceptor &#8211; the Cheongung-II / M-SAM &#8211; is produced by LIG Defense and Aerospace (079550 KS), with Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) supplying the laun
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/cf1b1e79-a58f-4701-882a-702f67dbac19We laid out this &#8220;warfare accounting&#8221; logic last June in [The New WFH (War from Home)](https://substack.com/redirect/65eab46f-ed4b-4e44-b420-846d249b7ef6). The natural
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/d636e9f4-8d8a-430f-a3d3-8905e01410d6Lockheed unveiledTo the first point, on July 20, [Lockheed unveiled](<LINK>) the PAC-3 ACE, designed to defeat cruise missiles and short-range missiles at half the price of a PAC-3 MSE. While Lockh
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/f093e54c-f7f4-4532-a59c-acc2adc667a4The FY27 DoW budget request (below) makes this quite clear, and unsurprisingly, the companies have echoed the urgency and inbound demand signals from the US government.<LINK>
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/f4285fc2-8cd1-46a9-b6e4-ac8e95b10ee8In this regard, Kratos (KTOS US) is one of the few highly exposed companies to this class that fits the bill as a near-pure play propulsion business. The Spartan turbojet line is r
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/f4f743cb-d77b-45d9-94cd-003a144941c8Next Vision (NXSN IT) is the drone equivalent of the propulsion thesis for rockets, making ultra-light gimbals and cameras. NXSN’s products are known to have been used in the US-Is
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/f591fc6e-6891-403e-a46a-4cc629d8b6b1The Russian equivalent is the Gerbera. Open-source work on Russian salvo composition suggests that in some months in 2025, 40-60% of launches were Gerbera decoys. These are typical
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/fcda63c4-d61d-4474-b70e-96ac375a134c<LINK>
A Minor Detail — 16 links · b 0 · c 2 · d 14

doomberg:2026-08-13T09:01:37+00:00:3c11cc15

ClassExact stored URLAnchorAdjacent contextQuery
chttps://open.substack.com/pub/doomberg/p/a-minor-detail### Amazingly, Putin will decide whether Europe freezes this winter.[Doomberg](https://substack.com/@doomberg)Aug 13&#8729;Paidhttps://substack.com/@doomberg <LINK>READ IN APP
chttps://substack.com/@doombergDoomberg### Amazingly, Putin will decide whether Europe freezes this winter.[Doomberg](<LINK>)Aug 13&#8729;Paidhttps://substack.com/@doomberg https://open.substack.com/pub/doomberg/p/a-min
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/0beae54d-1dff-43d8-89f7-18491d04e4b8coal deliveriesWere this Europe’s only challenge, it would be bad enough, but all manner of bad luck seems to be befalling the Old Continent simultaneously. A major drought is driving water level
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/2b692c2c-b1d3-4f48-b9e2-6562fa438ff1multi-year lowsWere this Europe’s only challenge, it would be bad enough, but all manner of bad luck seems to be befalling the Old Continent simultaneously. A major drought is driving water level
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/33212cc3-465c-4207-9fe1-9037af698c58the detailsAdding intrigue, and almost certainly the real reason Russia acted so swiftly and with disproportionate force, was news of a rather unusual weapons deal brokered by the US governme
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/47c35b0c-1e71-4d22-aa22-49161ca19a77This string of news items does not merely capture the latest pushing and shoving in a long-in-the-tooth war that most wish they could see the other side of. With Turkey entering th
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/6f78556d-9d90-4a26-af49-42311cc13492&#8220;The near-term effects have been disturbingly clear. Since July 22, the Russian military has effectively closed the Ukrainian port complex in and around Odessa to all shippin
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/789aca92-89aa-44fd-b3fc-97f6656cfa71FranceWere this Europe’s only challenge, it would be bad enough, but all manner of bad luck seems to be befalling the Old Continent simultaneously. A major drought is driving water level
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/843d66c1-70e7-469f-af95-e72538fe4dc2<LINK>
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/8cec809e-9b67-44da-8851-9d8be46c7e1bIn mid-July, the pro-Ukrainian open-source feeds we monitor lit up with reports of a major drone assault on Russian-connected ships in the Sea of Azov. Over the span of roughly ten
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/99fdfa72-108a-43bc-821d-3b26eaafb17aThe worry now is that Europe is heading into the darker months with less water to burn, and electricity prices may feel the squeeze.&#8221;<LINK>
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/c0482b22-2b74-4e80-ad89-8ef0e1f87fdelandlocked stateIt didn’t take long for Putin to use the cover of Ukraine’s attacks on grain cargoes to reverse his temperance. Over the subsequent weeks, a massive and devastating campaign was la
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/ca65809e-8202-4c2b-a706-c088ea321389We begin with a brief summary of the complicated game Erdo&#287;an has been playing for the length of the war in Ukraine. As a formal member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organizati
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/d0ba4b25-728d-4a25-8a36-a0954fb3d6cdHungary, and RomaniaWere this Europe’s only challenge, it would be bad enough, but all manner of bad luck seems to be befalling the Old Continent simultaneously. A major drought is driving water level
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/d6434741-0f3e-4588-9130-8fdcb1189e53Before dismissing the possibility out of hand, recall that for many months it’s been clear that the EU is hurtling toward yet another energy crisis, driven once again by a failure
dhttps://substack.com/redirect/ea8d0573-700c-44e9-bb35-d8268b5ed395&#8220;&#9825; Like&#8221; this piece, and we’ll donate some blankets and candles to Europe.<LINK>

Source: Mímir production read identity · 2026-08-13T09:25:25Z · exact audit and remediation: docs/reports/2026-08-13-substack-link-audit.md