July US core CPI increased 0.22%; OER and rent rebounded to 0.26%, while medical services added 5bp to core CPI.
Goldman expects July core PCE prices to increase 0.23%, slightly above the 0.22% core CPI increase.
The desk reports a benign core CPI print of 22bps unrounded versus 20bps consensus, prices a 38% chance of a September hike, and updates core PCE to 0.23% from 0.26% pre-release, or 3.27% year over year.
SMART indicates that inflation forecasts for coming quarters were revised down since June, while the underlying drivers were described as little changed.
If the downside inflation surprise is not reversed in upcoming prints and the committee concludes the outlook changed materially, no additional tightening would likely be warranted.
The key-figures table shows July headline CPI at 3.0% y/y and 10.0% seasonally adjusted annualized m/m, alongside the reported historical monthly CPI series.
Core inflation increased to 3.2% y/y in July on Goldman Sachs estimates, while the key-figures table reports the national-core y/y and seasonally adjusted annualized m/m series.
The component data show food and non-alcoholic beverages at -0.4% y/y in July, electricity, gas and other fuels at 4.0% y/y, and transport fuels at 15.8% y/y; the table also reports their historical y/y and annualized m/m series.
Governor Wolden Bache said inflation was lower than projected, while it remained too early to conclude that the inflation outlook had materially changed since June.
The CPI forecast calls for July headline CPI of 0.12% MoM and 3.4% YoY, core CPI of 0.22% MoM and 2.5% YoY, total energy down 1.2% MoM, motor fuel down 2.6%, and a June core CPI decline of 0.02% MoM as the prior print.
The CPI distribution is centered on a 0.20%-0.25% core MoM print with a 40% probability and a 25-75bp SPX gain, while a print above 0.30% has a 5% probability and implies a 1.5%-2.5% SPX decline.
JPM tracks a 0.22% monthly core PCE gain, implying a still-elevated 2.8% annualized three-month gain and a 3.3% year-over-year increase in July.
US CPI headline and core rose 0.07% and 0.22% month on month; year-ago rates fell by a tenth to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively, while the three-month core CPI run rate slipped below the 2% annualized target rate.
The in-line CPI print points toward a September FOMC hold; lower bond yields would support stocks and keep technology at the top of the leaderboard.
Feroli expects headline and core PPI at 0.2% month over month, with headline PPI at 4.9% and core PPI at 4.1% year over year.
Headline CPI rose 0.1% month on month and 3.4% year on year, core CPI rose 0.2% month on month and 2.5% year on year, and annualized core run rates improved across three- and six-month windows.
Sticky inflation could cause the Fed to hike, while robust nominal growth could push longer-dated yields higher.
The broader macro and volatility picture remains supportive: core inflation prints are benign, manufacturing is positive, the labor market is stable, financial conditions have eased, and US earnings growth is in double digits.
July US inflation was broadly in line: headline CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, while core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year.
The next inflation and labour-market data points were expected to remain close to the CPI pattern: headline PPI was forecast at 0.2% versus -0.3% previously and core PPI at 0.3% versus 0.2% previously, while initial jobless claims were expected at 205k versus 199k previously and 202k consensus.
The European inflation swap moved higher even as its US counterpart fell: the 1-year euro swap rose 1.5bps to 2.43%, a two-week high, while the US measure fell 7.3bps to 1.90%.
The document argues that the AI trade has an inflationary tradeoff: memory and software prices could raise core CPI by as much as 0.5%, forcing a policy choice between continuing the AI trade and responding to its inflationary consequences.
US CPI was in line, with core at 0.2% month on month and headline at 0.1% month on month.
Diesel shortages can raise freight, agriculture and industrial costs, allowing inflation pressure to build through refined products even without another explosive crude move.
If unresolved energy disruptions revive inflation concerns, Treasury yields and Fed pricing could rise, lifting implied volatility and making downside options more convex than their current price suggests.
Bank of America expects July headline consumer prices to rise 0.1% month on month and core prices to rise 0.2%.
Bank of America expects US rates and the USD to react more to a downside inflation print than to an equally sized upside print.
Deutsche Bank notes US CPI at 3.5%, consensus above 3% through year-end, fewer than 50bp of rate rises priced, and around 30bp priced through December.
If inflation remains elevated, inflation volatility should also remain elevated, increasing the inflation term premium as the path of inflation becomes more uncertain.
Longer-term yields will only come down when the market is convinced that the Fed has got a grip on inflation.
The latest CPI update is due today and will update the inflation-risk signal.