MOCKUP v2 · content delivery only · direction/one-liner/act lines DRAFT — figures, falsifiers, exposure real (E4-13, batch 2026-08-13)
Magnitude · the numbers in the tails42 reviewed · 3 ship · 2 cut below the bar

“Every tail today is a cash-flow break, not a price move — and the book’s tech core sits on each one.” DRAFT

BEARISH

Alphabet just printed its first negative free cash flow in 20+ years as a public company — and the fund held GOOGL unchanged into it.

Re-underwrite or resize the 1,000-share hold before the next print. DRAFT

Book exposure$346,360 GOOGL · AI & gagnaver

What kills this callAn earlier post-IPO negative-FCF period, or a revision making the current quarter non-negative.

BEARISH

Beating earnings no longer pays in the fund's sector: TMT beats get punished −192 bps at T+0 while non-TMT beats earn +75 bps.

Stop underwriting the AI sleeve on earnings beats — the market is grading financing, not results. DRAFT

Book exposureAI & datacenter sleeve — largest theme in the book

What kills this callA broader sample showing TMT beats matching or outperforming the S&P at T+0.

BULLISH

The compute-pricing floor just tripled: $30/W to underwrite against, versus the prior ~$10/W assumption.

The datacenter-power names are being repriced from the cost side — size against the new floor, not the old one. DRAFT

Book exposurePower-generation and datacenter-infrastructure names

What kills this callEnforceable compute contracts settling near $10/W rather than at least $30/W.

2 medium findings cut — below the bar. Audit 6/6 on every shipped line.