Analysis cards — stance drift

18 payload days · 300 subjects seen · 42 carry a series · source viska.signal-graph/1.4
Conviction and breadth are copied from the graph node, never recomputed. Dot size is breadth; hollow dots are days below four houses; the line breaks where nobody filed.

Crowded rollover — 4 subjects

Oil Cycle

Power Generation
+0.08conviction now
12houses
↘ -0.37trend
11days
2026-07-30 · +0.67 · 12 houses · strong-bull2026-08-05 · +1.00 · 2 houses · strong-bull2026-08-07 · +0.17 · 6 houses · contested2026-08-10 · +0.80 · 10 houses · strong-bull2026-08-11 · +1.00 · 2 houses · strong-bull2026-08-12 · +0.29 · 14 houses · bull2026-08-13 · +0.54 · 13 houses · strong-bull2026-08-14 · +0.17 · 6 houses · contested2026-08-16 · +1.00 · 2 houses · strong-bull2026-08-17 · +0.17 · 12 houses · bull2026-08-18 · +0.08 · 12 houses · contested
07-30 +0.67 · 12h  →  08-18 +0.08 · 12h
net contestedhouses disagree3 thin of 11
horizon rotationawaiting signal-graph/1.5

Hyperscaler CAPEX ROIC

AI
+0.20conviction now
10houses
↘ -0.53trend
10days
2026-07-30 · +0.62 · 16 houses · strong-bull2026-08-03 · +0.50 · 7 houses · strong-bull2026-08-04 · +0.75 · 4 houses · strong-bull2026-08-07 · +1.00 · 4 houses · strong-bull2026-08-10 · +1.00 · 2 houses · strong-bull2026-08-12 · +0.45 · 11 houses · strong-bull2026-08-13 · +0.71 · 7 houses · strong-bull2026-08-15 · -1.25 · 4 houses · strong-bear2026-08-17 · -0.14 · 7 houses · contested2026-08-18 · +0.20 · 10 houses · bull
07-30 +0.62 · 16h  →  08-18 +0.20 · 10h
houses disagree1 thin of 10
horizon rotationawaiting signal-graph/1.5

Grid Buildout

Energy Infrastructure
+0.25conviction now
4houses
↘ -0.26trend
9days
2026-07-30 · +1.00 · 8 houses · strong-bull2026-08-05 · +1.00 · 3 houses · strong-bull2026-08-07 · +0.67 · 3 houses · bull2026-08-10 · +0.90 · 10 houses · strong-bull2026-08-12 · +0.40 · 5 houses · bull2026-08-13 · +0.71 · 7 houses · strong-bull2026-08-14 · +1.00 · 3 houses · strong-bull2026-08-17 · +1.00 · 4 houses · strong-bull2026-08-18 · +0.25 · 4 houses · bull
07-30 +1.00 · 8h  →  08-18 +0.25 · 4h
houses disagree3 thin of 9
horizon rotationawaiting signal-graph/1.5

GPU Ramp

+0.20conviction now
5houses
↘ -0.62trend
6days
2026-07-30 · +1.29 · 7 houses · strong-bull2026-08-05 · +1.00 · 4 houses · strong-bull2026-08-12 · +1.00 · 2 houses · strong-bull2026-08-16 · +0.50 · 2 houses · bull2026-08-17 · +0.83 · 6 houses · strong-bull2026-08-18 · +0.20 · 5 houses · bull
07-30 +1.29 · 7h  →  08-18 +0.20 · 5h
houses disagree2 thin of 6
horizon rotationawaiting signal-graph/1.5

The standing board

AI CAPEX Buildout

AI
+0.45conviction now
11houses
↘ -0.18trend
16days
2026-07-30 · +0.45 · 31 houses · strong-bull2026-08-02 · -0.17 · 6 houses · contested2026-08-03 · +0.78 · 7 houses · strong-bull2026-08-04 · +1.00 · 2 houses · strong-bull2026-08-05 · +1.00 · 13 houses · strong-bull2026-08-06 · +0.88 · 8 houses · strong-bull2026-08-07 · +0.50 · 16 houses · strong-bull2026-08-10 · +0.78 · 21 houses · strong-bull2026-08-11 · +0.60 · 10 houses · strong-bull2026-08-12 · +0.22 · 23 houses · bull2026-08-13 · +0.52 · 25 houses · strong-bull2026-08-14 · +0.33 · 6 houses · bull2026-08-15 · -1.25 · 4 houses · strong-bear2026-08-16 · +0.40 · 5 houses · bull2026-08-17 · +1.07 · 15 houses · strong-bull2026-08-18 · +0.45 · 11 houses · strong-bull
07-30 +0.45 · 31h  →  08-18 +0.45 · 11h
houses disagree1 thin of 16
horizon rotationawaiting signal-graph/1.5

FED Rate Policy

+0.12conviction now
16houses
↗ +0.19trend
11days
2026-07-30 · +0.38 · 13 houses · bull2026-08-03 · -1.00 · 2 houses · strong-bear2026-08-07 · +0.23 · 13 houses · bull2026-08-10 · +0.50 · 2 houses · bull2026-08-12 · -0.17 · 12 houses · bear2026-08-13 · +0.57 · 14 houses · strong-bull2026-08-14 · +0.57 · 7 houses · strong-bull2026-08-15 · -1.00 · 2 houses · strong-bear2026-08-16 · +0.33 · 3 houses · bull2026-08-17 · +0.29 · 17 houses · bull2026-08-18 · +0.12 · 16 houses · bull
07-30 +0.38 · 13h  →  08-18 +0.12 · 16h
houses disagree4 thin of 11
horizon rotationawaiting signal-graph/1.5

Gold Precious Metals

Minerals
+0.75conviction now
8houses
↗ +0.25trend
11days
2026-07-30 · +0.33 · 3 houses · bull2026-08-02 · -0.33 · 3 houses · bear2026-08-06 · +0.71 · 5 houses · strong-bull2026-08-07 · +0.83 · 6 houses · strong-bull2026-08-10 · +0.80 · 5 houses · strong-bull2026-08-11 · +1.00 · 3 houses · strong-bull2026-08-12 · +0.44 · 9 houses · bull2026-08-13 · +0.90 · 10 houses · strong-bull2026-08-14 · +1.00 · 4 houses · strong-bull2026-08-17 · +1.00 · 10 houses · strong-bull2026-08-18 · +0.75 · 8 houses · strong-bull
07-30 +0.33 · 3h  →  08-18 +0.75 · 8h
houses disagree3 thin of 11
horizon rotationawaiting signal-graph/1.5

Strait of Hormuz Blockade Risk

Power Generation
+0.50conviction now
4houses
→ -0.01trend
10days
2026-08-03 · +0.14 · 7 houses · contested2026-08-04 · +0.20 · 5 houses · bull2026-08-05 · +0.67 · 6 houses · strong-bull2026-08-06 · +0.60 · 5 houses · strong-bull2026-08-07 · +0.30 · 10 houses · bull2026-08-10 · +0.82 · 11 houses · strong-bull2026-08-11 · -0.11 · 9 houses · contested2026-08-12 · +0.18 · 11 houses · bull2026-08-13 · +0.40 · 10 houses · bull2026-08-14 · +0.50 · 4 houses · bull
08-03 +0.14 · 7h  →  08-14 +0.50 · 4h
horizon rotationawaiting signal-graph/1.5

Semiconductor Degrossing

+0.50conviction now
2houses
↘ -0.15trend
9days
2026-08-03 · +1.00 · 5 houses · strong-bull2026-08-04 · +0.60 · 5 houses · strong-bull2026-08-05 · +1.00 · 9 houses · strong-bull2026-08-06 · +0.22 · 8 houses · bull2026-08-07 · +0.18 · 11 houses · bull2026-08-10 · +0.71 · 6 houses · strong-bull2026-08-12 · +0.70 · 10 houses · strong-bull2026-08-13 · +0.67 · 12 houses · strong-bull2026-08-14 · +0.50 · 2 houses · bull
08-03 +1.00 · 5h  →  08-14 +0.50 · 2h
1 thin of 9
horizon rotationawaiting signal-graph/1.5

Gas LNG

Energy Infrastructure
+0.33conviction now
3houses
↘ -0.15trend
9days
2026-07-30 · +1.00 · 4 houses · strong-bull2026-08-05 · +1.00 · 5 houses · strong-bull2026-08-06 · +0.67 · 3 houses · bull2026-08-07 · +0.20 · 5 houses · bull2026-08-10 · +0.50 · 2 houses · bull2026-08-12 · +0.40 · 5 houses · bull2026-08-13 · +1.00 · 4 houses · strong-bull2026-08-14 · +0.50 · 4 houses · bull2026-08-17 · +0.33 · 3 houses · bull
07-30 +1.00 · 4h  →  08-17 +0.33 · 3h
houses disagree3 thin of 9
horizon rotationawaiting signal-graph/1.5

Copper Deficit

Minerals
-0.25conviction now
4houses
↘ -0.26trend
8days
2026-07-30 · +1.00 · 3 houses · strong-bull2026-08-06 · +1.00 · 2 houses · strong-bull2026-08-07 · +1.00 · 2 houses · strong-bull2026-08-10 · +0.67 · 3 houses · bull2026-08-12 · +0.67 · 3 houses · bull2026-08-14 · +1.00 · 2 houses · strong-bull2026-08-17 · +1.20 · 5 houses · strong-bull2026-08-18 · -0.25 · 4 houses · bear
07-30 +1.00 · 3h  →  08-18 -0.25 · 4h
houses disagree6 thin of 8
horizon rotationawaiting signal-graph/1.5

China AI Model Competition

AI
+1.00conviction now
4houses
↗ +0.31trend
8days
2026-08-03 · +0.25 · 4 houses · bull2026-08-04 · +1.00 · 2 houses · strong-bull2026-08-05 · +0.50 · 2 houses · bull2026-08-06 · +1.00 · 2 houses · strong-bull2026-08-07 · +1.00 · 3 houses · strong-bull2026-08-10 · +0.50 · 2 houses · bull2026-08-12 · +1.00 · 2 houses · strong-bull2026-08-13 · +1.00 · 4 houses · strong-bull
08-03 +0.25 · 4h  →  08-13 +1.00 · 4h
6 thin of 8
horizon rotationawaiting signal-graph/1.5

AI Inference Demand

AI
+0.62conviction now
8houses
↘ -0.44trend
7days
2026-08-05 · +1.00 · 2 houses · strong-bull2026-08-07 · +1.00 · 2 houses · strong-bull2026-08-10 · +1.00 · 3 houses · strong-bull2026-08-12 · +0.71 · 7 houses · strong-bull2026-08-13 · +0.67 · 9 houses · strong-bull2026-08-14 · -0.33 · 3 houses · bear2026-08-17 · +0.62 · 8 houses · strong-bull
08-05 +1.00 · 2h  →  08-17 +0.62 · 8h
houses disagree4 thin of 7
horizon rotationawaiting signal-graph/1.5
Three facts that must never share a badge (ViskaRes, 2026-08-20)
houses disagree the documents disagree with each other, at any horizon — split
net contested the net landed near centre — reading == "contested"
horizon rotation coherent within each horizon, opposite between them — horizon_split, not yet in the data

Trend is breadth-weighted, not endpoint-to-endpoint. FED Rate Policy reads −0.26 on endpoints and +0.19 weighted — opposite directions, because its two endpoints are 2-house days. The weighted figure leads; a series more than half thin is not flagged at all.

Open contract question. Node mean is not bounded to ±1 — corpus range −1.25 to +1.29. Any gauge drawn on a ±1 assumption clips.